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Book Description

Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.

Amazon.com

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

From Publishers Weekly

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

From Library Journal

For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY

From Booklist

Bernstein's lively history chronicles a profound transformation in attitudes about the future. How one's fate changed from depending less on capricious outcomes and more on predictable ones forms the backbone of the narrative. His central characters are mathematicians who began pondering the statistics of gambling, or gamblers pondering the risks of gambling: about one sixteenth-century polymath, Girolamo Cardano, Bernstein writes that his "credentials as a gambling addict alone would justify his appearance in the history of risk," and that comment is typical of Bernstein's engaging presentation. Amid his recounting of the insights into probability from Pascal to Keynes, he touches on an array of modern fields in which risk analysis is crucial--insurance, commodities futures, stock markets, and that old standard, gambling. This cornucopia of biographical sketches, mathematical examples, and reflections on the nature of human expectations about the future faces little risk of idling in libraries; patrons of the business section might be keenest to read it.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Gilbert Taylor

From AudioFile

Jesse Boggs honed his expressive, laid-back vocal style narrating his own award-winning documentaries. Here, as reader and abridger, he goes a long way to clarify Bernstein's convoluted theory of risk management. His careful phrasing also brings into high relief the sweeping generalizations and questionable axioms that give pause to the analytic listener. Only in this careful frame of mind can one separate wheat from chaff and learn whatever this book has to teach. Y.R.

The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998

AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."

Book Dimension

length: (cm)22.7 　　　 　　　　　 　　　　　 width:(cm)15.2

Acknowledgments ix

Introduction 1

TO 1200: BEGINNINGS

1. The Winds of the Greeks and the Role

of the Dice 11

2. As Easy as I, II, III 23

1200–1700: A THOUSAND OUTSTANDING FACTS

3. The Renaissance Gambler 39

4. The French Connection 57

5. The Remarkable Notions of the Remarkable Notions Man 73

1700–1900: MEASUREMENT UNLIMITED

6. Considering the Nature of Man 99

7. The Search for Moral Certainty 116

8. The Supreme Law of Unreason 135

9. The Man with the Sprained Brain 152

10. Peapods and Perils 172

11. The Fabric of Felicity 187

1900–1960: CLOUDS OF VAGUENESS AND THE DEMAND FOR PRECISION

12. The Measure of Our Ignorance 197

13. The Radically Distinct Notion 215

14. The Man Who Counted Everything Except Calories 231

15. The Strange Case of the Anonymous Stockbroker 247

DEGREES OF BELIEF:EXPLORING UNCERTAINTY

16. The Failure of Invariance 269

17. The Theory Police 284

18. The Fantastic System of Side Bets 304

19. Awaiting the Wildness 329

Notes 339

Bibliography 353

Name Index 365

Subject Index 369

PETER L. BERNSTEIN is President of Peter L. Bernstein, Inc., economic consultants to institutional advisors and corporations. His semimonthly analysis of the capital markets and the real economy, Economics and Portfolio Strategy, is read by managers and owners of investments totaling over one trillion dollars. Mr. Bernstein is the author of many articles in the professional and popular press, as well as six books in economics and finance, including the bestselling Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street. He is the coeditor of Investment Management (Wiley), and was the first editor of The Journal of Portfolio Management.

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书籍介绍

在线阅读本书

Book Description

Human existence is based upon risk. This text charts the adventures of a group of thinkers who embarked on a voyage of intellectual discovery, transforming primeval superstition into the powerful tools of risk control employed today.

Amazon.com

With the stock market breaking records almost daily, leaving longtime market analysts shaking their heads and revising their forecasts, a study of the concept of risk seems quite timely. Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

From Publishers Weekly

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies. The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

From Library Journal

For several centuries, mathematics has been the language of the exact sciences. Only in the 20th century has mathematics become predominant in other fields, particularly economics and finance. In this book, Bernstein (Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street, LJ 12/91), head of an economic consulting firm, traces the development of probability theory from its beginnings in analyzing games of chance, through its application to statistical theory and insurance, up to its present use in developing investment strategies to control risk. He includes excellent sections on portfolio analysis and on investments in derivatives. Bernstein clearly describes the people, their work, and the events that have revolutionized the thinking on Wall Street. A worthwhile acquisition for business and math collections.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Harold D. Shane, Baruch Coll., CUNY

From Booklist

Bernstein's lively history chronicles a profound transformation in attitudes about the future. How one's fate changed from depending less on capricious outcomes and more on predictable ones forms the backbone of the narrative. His central characters are mathematicians who began pondering the statistics of gambling, or gamblers pondering the risks of gambling: about one sixteenth-century polymath, Girolamo Cardano, Bernstein writes that his "credentials as a gambling addict alone would justify his appearance in the history of risk," and that comment is typical of Bernstein's engaging presentation. Amid his recounting of the insights into probability from Pascal to Keynes, he touches on an array of modern fields in which risk analysis is crucial--insurance, commodities futures, stock markets, and that old standard, gambling. This cornucopia of biographical sketches, mathematical examples, and reflections on the nature of human expectations about the future faces little risk of idling in libraries; patrons of the business section might be keenest to read it.

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Gilbert Taylor

From AudioFile

Jesse Boggs honed his expressive, laid-back vocal style narrating his own award-winning documentaries. Here, as reader and abridger, he goes a long way to clarify Bernstein's convoluted theory of risk management. His careful phrasing also brings into high relief the sweeping generalizations and questionable axioms that give pause to the analytic listener. Only in this careful frame of mind can one separate wheat from chaff and learn whatever this book has to teach. Y.R.

The Washington Post Book World, September 20, 1998

AGAINST THE GODS appeared in the "Washington Is Also Reading..." section of The Washington Post Book World. The book is described as, "A comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, from ancient gamblers in Greece to modern chaos theory."

Book Dimension

length: (cm)22.7 　　　 　　　　　 　　　　　 width:(cm)15.2

• 作者：霹雳大叔 发布时间：2014-11-28 17:49:07

  就是关于风险、统计的科学简史。写的东拉西扯，感觉作者的描述能力很差，没重点，也讲不清楚。明明能简洁讲明白非要胡扯一通。另外，哪怕整理出来了，也没一点实用性。要看还不如看黑天鹅。

• 作者：FLow 发布时间：2015-07-26 16:19:18

  Brilliant book~~

• 作者：庄常飞 发布时间：2010-03-02 11:32:12

  什么东西能够系统化的学学就是比东拼西凑强很多，Bernstein的文笔也好，真正寓教于乐，很多观点也新颖，绝对有养分的一本书。

• 作者：lxc0212 发布时间：2018-11-08 22:45:15

  挑着把自己感兴趣的部分看过了，觉得雍正真的好有趣。腹黑又暴躁、接地气又奢华。

• 作者：c h l 发布时间：2013-10-15 00:04:22

  增长了不少奇趣小姿势。。。

• 作者：Auguste 发布时间：2011-05-01 19:14:21

  书中小八卦好多，哈哈

• 日常那些闪光的瞬间，让我们感到活在珍贵的人间

  作者：夜之俄尔甫斯 发布时间：2019-09-21 20:31:15

  白色的虹——这个书名比较吸引人，尽管我并不是标题党。

  封面的水彩画风设计也比较别致——雪花冰晶弥漫和包裹的城镇，给人以一种冷冷的神秘感——尽管我也不是封面党。

  我本能地将这本书当做小说来读。尽管编辑比较谨慎，将副标题定为“短篇集”，而不是“短篇小说集”。的确，读帕乌斯托夫斯基这部作品，这个界限并不明确。看得出，编者是个认真的人，体裁的标签不能随便贴，这是个细节。

  帕乌斯托夫斯基的作品，之前读的本来就不多，但很有特色，对于俄罗斯这个地处西伯利亚的北方雪国文坛，除了官方流行的几个作家外，个人比较熟悉和喜欢的就是普里什文。而读帕乌斯托夫斯基，的确也很容易让人想到普里什文，想到两者作品中同样具有的优美的自然或田园气息，想到它们同样的人间温暖，而后者经常被误解为只是儿童文学领域的大师。

  帕乌斯托夫斯基的短篇，与其他作家的短篇小说相比，往往让人很难分清它们是一篇篇的小说，还是叙事性散文。这样说，并不是指这是它的缺点，恰恰相反，而是它的特点。一句话，它的作品并不追求戏剧化的冲突矛盾，它的故事情节平淡（并非平铺直叙），像日常生活一样缓缓流淌。

  所以，他的短篇容易被看作是有叙事性质的散文作品，这也是他这些短篇作品，有时不被称之为小说的缘故。

  帕乌斯托夫斯基读来，另一个突出特点应该就是“抒情性”或曰“诗化”——到处可见大量的景物描写和环境描写。而这些描写又富于诗情画意，从而对故事背景进行的抒情性渲染，让这些作品常常蒙上了一层层令人难以忘怀的诗意。当然，长期受悬疑科幻类故事熏陶的读者们，可能会难以接受，甚至会认为这些“过分”的描写会削弱故事情节，浪费时间。不过，阅读体验从来就是多样化的，对此我们可以姑且称其为“诗性小说”。这一点又让人容易想到中国上世纪文坛的沈从文和废名的诗性田园小说，不过他们之间的差异也是很明显的，这里暂且不谈。

  从这些描写中，透露出帕乌斯托夫斯基对大自然的情有独钟，而不少作品的标题也可窥其一斑，如：《鳟鱼游荡的小溪》《雪》《海风》《柠檬树的故事》《飓风》《细雨蒙蒙的早晨》《白色的虹》《雪原》《野蔷薇》《巨型红杉树》《面向秋野》……这些标题无不是以大自然的景物进行命名的，它们的故事也都大都以这样的自然场景（或者说舞台）进行展开的，没有都市化的那种灯红酒绿、勾心斗角、狂欢放荡，帕乌斯托夫斯基的小说整体上具有一种质朴的品质，然而他却又不是乡土作家，没有将自身囿限于乡村题材，这点确实难得。

  最后说下故事。帕乌斯托夫斯基的故事的视角大多关注的那些行走在社会底层的小人物，而他们的故事许多可以说来自于深藏于内心的多年回忆，来自于以前发生过的某个真实事件，或者跟当年的战争有关，或者跟以前某个新闻事件有关，等等，所以它们往往以一种怀旧的气息将这些故事演绎出来，由此给人产生一种淡淡的伤感和怀念。此外，这些故事的情节没有多少张弛，也没有鲜明的高潮迭起的戏剧性，却往往从某些挖掘某些日常生活的瞬间或片段，来展示人性，人性的丑陋或自私，以及人性中始终未被泯灭的闪光点，从而使得他的作品中充满了人性的温暖。

  读帕乌斯托夫斯基这些抒情性的短篇叙事作品，总能让我们感受到大自然间田园般的诗意，感受到人间的一丝丝暖意，也可以说，它们是“正能量”的，尽管这个词说出来有些官方式的滥俗和轻浮。

• 评《怪癖心理学》

  作者：汪小七 发布时间：2024-02-02 14:31:10

  对于自己的情绪，心理，有了更多的了解，读到与自己“怪癖”相关的部分有种“原来如此”的感觉

  但是读过了我又觉得很悲哀，里面提到的很多东西，要么被现在的社会所忽略，要么被当成玩笑乱开，要么就是被当成非正常人

  心理上的问题看不见摸不着，所以总给人一种“没病装病”“矫情”的感觉

  但是其中有很多怪癖是会给人带来快感的，甚至有些具有成瘾性，我感觉，除了比较极端的个例，很难有人将其归为“病”去治疗