第六感：强化组织学习的情景训练法 THE SIXTH SENSE - ACCELERATING ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING WITH SCENARIOS 在线下载 pdf mobi 2025 epub 电子版

This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it.

Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?'

Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time.

This book explains:

Why scenario thinking is increasingly important: how it has developed as an approach that can help build successful strategies and organizations.

How scenarios are valuable in overcoming an obstacle or problem - current or potential - by enabling innovation and creative thinking 'outside the box'.

How scenario thinking can be used to resolve organizational flaws by enhancing the strategic conversation.

How to understand the scenario approach in the context of effective organizational learning and development.

How to ensure that scenario thinking is included in a wider strategic and organizational learning framework, essential for organizational survival.

Outlining the benefits and techniques of scenario thinking The Sixth Sense shows that scenario thinking is purposeful and effective in driving strategy and organizational development towards managerial and organizational success.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

INTRODUCTION

The Quest for a Clear Vision of the Future

Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future

The Significance of Scenario Thinking

Developing the Sixth Sense-the Approach to Scenario Thinking

How this Book is Organized

1.PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

Understanding Organizational Success

Success and Failure are Inevitable

Understanding success by understanding failure

Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail

Maintaining Organizational Performance: Problems

Sustaining Competitive Advantage-the Battle of Canon and Xerox

Yahoo!-Competing in Fast-moving Markets

Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick-the Story of Lego

Success Stories

Providing Customer Value-the Rise of Tetra Pak

Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth-Nokia Answers the Call

Barriers to Strategic Success

Lessons Learned

Creating Value-The Difference Between Success and Failure

Value is Created in a Domain of Scarcity

Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning

2.HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

Understanding Management Thinking

Routines in Management Thinking

Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking

Biases in thinking

The Relevance of Framing Flaws

How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke

Confirmation Bias

Hindsight Bias

The Problem of Overconfidence

The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting

Decision Avoidance

Escalation of Commitment

Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing

Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma

Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis

Overcoming Strategic Inertia: the Potential Benefits of Scenario Planning

A Scenario is not a Forecast of the Future

Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future

Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold

Typical Outcomes of the Scenario Planning Process

Summary: Overcoming Thinking Flaws with Scenario Planning

Summary Checklist-the Limits to Managerial Thinking

3.HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE

Flaws in Organizational Thinking

Communication Difficulties

Group-think in Organizations

Fragmentation in Organizations

Limitations Imposed by Identity

Balancing Change and Constancy

Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM

Organizational Lock-in

Understanding Organizational Lock-in

The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in

……

4.THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY

5.SHAPING THE FUTURE:THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES

6.DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS:PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS

7.SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT

8.SCENARIO PLANNING:TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE

SUMMARY

GLOSSARY

REFERENCES

INDEX

Kees van der Heijden (Scotland) is Director of the Centre for Scenario Planning and Future Studies, the Graduate School of Business at the University of Strathclyde, U.K.

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书籍介绍

This book is about organizational survival: the reasons why organizations do not always survive, and what can be done about it. Survival means creating value for stakeholders, and the survival problem starts with uncertainty, change and the need for organizations to adapt to shifting needs and market conditions. The key question is 'Why are organizations slow to change and adapt?' Unsuccessful organizations are distinguished by their failure to overcome thinking and behavioural flaws at personal, organizational and community levels. In this book, we explain what these flaws are and how the scenario approach helps senior managers and organizations to overcome them. Our approach is based on reasoning, research, real world observations - and a long track record developing scenario-based thinking, combining the most effective elements of the many scenario approaches that have been tried over time. "Organizational learning and scenario planning are seen by many business people as two separate disciplines, with different programmes and communities of practice. This book builds a bridge between the two. I believe this is important. It will invite the organizational learners to develop a deeper perspective on the longer-term business environment, and it will invite the scenario planners to consider their work in the context of organizational survival and development. Both will be better off, to the benefit of their organizations." —Arie de Geus, author of The Living Company "Helping organizations learn their way into the future in a world of complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity is what The Sixth Sense is all about. The book is a deep, insightful and practical guide to the tools an organization needs to break through the limits of its own thinking. Scenario thinkers and planners working to make their organizations adaptive learners will find invaluable tools and examples to guide their own development." —Peter Schwartz, co-founder and chair of Global Business Network and author of The Art of the Long View .

• 作者：Beginner 发布时间：2023-08-19 12:50:42

  哈哈哈哈哈哈

• 作者：归野 发布时间：2022-04-30 00:09:14

  只能说还好。里面的内容已经在自媒体广为传播。但作为08的书思想也算超前。要成为老板，需要把工作当成自己的事业去做，才能做好，才能有更多的收获。同时还要不断的学习培养自己的能力。最终开创属于自己的事业。

• 作者：harumi 发布时间：2017-01-22 11:44:11

  咸湿

• 作者：多搁辣椒少放盐 发布时间：2013-05-04 14:43:34

  我只是写了个评论而已，没读完

• 作者：朱岳 发布时间：2015-12-18 11:15:00

  故事、叙事都有佩雷克的感觉，在地铁上捧读比周围低头看手机的人群拉风。

• 作者：唐东方 发布时间：2015-02-17 23:39:27

  掌握战略选择学问，避免关键时刻掉链子。系统阐述战略选择框架、思想与方法的书籍，值得好好研读

• 最初的开始，也是最后的终结

  作者：Crystal 发布时间：2019-10-02 15:32:00

  如果给你一个机会重新选择，遇到同样的转角处，你是否会选择和现在走同样的一条路？你是否相信时空旅行的存在，是否相信在另一个时空，另一条时间线上有另一个你存在，你们或许有着同样的儿时经历，却因为某一次的抉择不同，走向了不同的人生。当有一天，你发现“你”自己拥有你所没有的一切，你又会如何选择？

  初看到《亡者归来》这本书的时候，就心动了，一个逝去的人如何能够归来？带着这样的疑问，我翻开了这本书。读完之后，发现的确是亡者归来了。整个故事涉及到很多，包括蝴蝶效应，薛定谔的猫，时空旅行。记得刚开始看的时候，我以为我在看恐怖游轮，又或是像《爱 ，死亡，机器人》的第三集莫比乌斯环一样，一切都在一种死循环之中。读着读着，发现其实它更复杂，它不是一种单纯的循环。而是时空线的错乱导致一个时空出现了同样的人。想起我前段时间看的《阳台见》，也是关于时空旅行的故事。

  

  薛定谔的猫说盒子里的猫是死是活，你只有打开盒子才知道。没有猫可以处在不死不活的状态。我一直都觉得，虽然盒子没有被打开，但是盒子里的猫的结局是既定的，没有人可以改变。可是周凯倾向于盒子没有被打开的时候，是有两种情况存在的，没有人真正知道结果是什么。如果时间线不可改变，那么每个时空内他的人生就不会发生变化，所以他才会那么努力的想要改变结局，想要救回自己的恋人。

  说实话，看《亡者归来》的时候，我的脑子也在飞速的运转，地下迷宫的机制，我自己也在不停地分析。有很多个“我们”存在，可我知道我才是我，那么其他人呢，他们是否也都觉得他们才是“我”。读到后面明白周凯一开始在监控视频里看到的“周凯”，其实就是他自己。正因为就是他自己，所以才会言行举止与他那么相似，而给他的提示就是他自己。他因为白小熙的死开始调查整个案件，步入了这个谜局，冒着生命危险解开了地下迷宫的秘密，却因此穿越回了白小熙死亡之前，于是他希望自己可以改变这一切。看到“白小熙”杀了白小熙，脑子里一直在重复播放《甄嬛传》中的:姐姐追着姐姐，皇后杀了皇后。可是，每一个时空都有他自己的运行规则，是不允许有人破坏的，没有人可以成为例外。故事的最后，故事依旧按照既定的结局走了下去。一切该发生的还是会发生，不免感到遗憾。

  因为男女主喜欢推理悬疑小说，所以作者在书中提到了很多我个人也比较喜欢的书籍，也是因为这样，所以作者的叙述才会如此流畅，吸引人，完成度很高了。这是我第一次读异青人的作品，一直觉得国内没有几个对我胃口的推理悬疑小说作家，异青人让我看到国内作家也可以创作处好的作品，期待作者的其他书籍，也希望国内有越来越多的让人惊艳的作品！

• 翻译是如何毁掉外国文学的又一例证

  作者：易璟笙 发布时间：2013-03-25 23:48:46

  我阅读的嗜好很怪，如饥饿无比的饕餮，从翻开书的第一页开始，必定要到最后一页，作为阅读的尾声，断断续续去看一部作品，我认为无法彻底投入身心，沉浸到作者在小说中营造的氛围（当然，那些差劲到不得不让人停顿一会，甚至没法吸引到读者投入的快餐作品除外）。

  但是这本《钢琴教师》，我直至今日才看完，从我高中时买来，到我硕士毕业两年，经过了八年时光，才断续地、真正地看完这本书。

  原因只有一个，就是——

  这本书的翻译实在太烂了。

  阅读译者后言的时候，看到他自谦为了这部作品，花费了许多力气，一开始从不被获批出版就心仪此作，到借诺奖东风得以面世，最后决定翻译的语言忠于原文。

  在近几年的翻译作品中，“忠于原文”似乎已经成为了所有力不从心的译者至高无上的尚方宝剑、无坚不摧的挡箭牌。

  句式不畅？因为我们忠于原文。语句平淡？因为我们忠于原文。词藻枯燥？因为我们忠于原文。

  嗐，得了罢！这样老调重弹的借口，能持续骗倒多少年的读者？

  君不见，法兰西、翡冷翠，这些信达雅具备的词语，比起法国、佛罗伦萨要有多明珠熠熠；多少经典外国小说、诗歌，到现在沿用的，仍是清朝晚期、民国、建国初期的译者版本；甚至我所学的专业，每年都有大量的人才出国归国，被奉为权威的，始终只有一本从前的《元照英美法对照词典》。

  本作的毛病与许多翻译版本一样。句式不畅，节奏混乱，语句平淡。长短句的应用不明显，以及排比、连续句式的运用十分贫瘠。奥地利语是以德语为基础的，使用的官方语言是奥地利语、德语、英语。作为略懂德语皮毛的我，知道德语是非常难的，语法、词性、时态的难度，是西班牙语和葡萄牙语的几倍，但不要认为是德国人的严肃令到德语硬邦邦，连同文学作品都索然无味。不少热情得令人窒息，羞涩不敢直视的诗歌，都是用德语写成。

  我看过的奥地利作家的作品很少，女性作家的作品的话，这本更是唯一一本。埃尔夫丽德·耶利内克的此作，是如同暴风雨般快速、宣泄般倾倒的开场。她在对外界的敏感上，与波兰作家极为相似。不同的是，她更为大胆，没有他们略为约束的理性收敛。本作尽管是完全的第三视角，也能通过主人公感受到作者的疯狂、沉浸在故事中的不可自拔与迷乱。被扭曲的人性，一旦受到释放，其疯狂原应让读者尉为心悸，但是在味如嚼蜡的翻译之下，只让人感觉到想快速翻页而阅。

  衷心希望译者在进修外语的时候，切勿忘记在中文素养上有所进步。现在我们已经有了谷歌翻译，在未来几十年，科技还会继续日新月异。曾有人预言字迹千变万化，手写识别很难达到100%准确，但现在手写识别率已是过去五年前的翻倍，所以，我们谁知道会不会有那么一天，机械翻译已能达到正确率90%以上。真的有那么一天到来，我们还会需要翻译得如同机械般生硬的“人”译吗？

  翻译，是一门艺术，不是一门技术。